Commodity Market Analysis Research Library
Check back each month to read the latest proprietary study addressing issues in Commodity Market Analysis written by Bruce A. Scherr, CEO of Informa Economics, Inc. To access the articles below, first make sure you are logged in as a member, and then click the links below. Membership is free, click here to register.
Trouble on the Horizon in Brazil: Weather Issues to Affect Center/South Production?
Informa forecasts a fifth consecutive surplus in 2014/15 for the world sugar market. With record ending stock levels projected for both the 2013/14 and 2014/15 marketing years, the fundamental scenario would seem decidedly bearish. However, world sugar output does not appear likely to exceed the record 183 million tons produced in 2012/13. In "Trouble on the Horizon in Brazil: Weather Issues to Affect Center/South Production?" Ben Warolin, Senior Analyst, Tropical Products – Informa Economics, Inc. examines the environmental factors effecting cane sugar production, and how Brazil's standing as the world's leading producer and exporter of sugar cane will impact the world sugar market. Click here for full article
Transition to Larger Fed Cattle Supplies to Pressure Prices
Larger feedlot placements for the first quarter of 2014, coupled with feedlot inventories close to last year, point to both seasonal and year–over–year increases in fed cattle supplies in late spring and early summer — which stands in sharp contrast to a year earlier when fed beef production plunged nearly 5% and propelled beef prices to historical highs in March. In "Transition to Larger Fed Cattle Supplies to Pressure Prices," Mike Sands, Vice President – Informa Economics, Inc. delves into the factors influencing beef prices and the futures market through the balance of 2014. Click here for full article
Lower Corn Prices Fosters Surge to World Corn Export Trade
The nearby U.S. corn futures price slipped near $4.06 in early January - the lowest nearby corn futures had traded since August 2010 - in anticipation that the USDA would raise its 2014 U.S. corn production estimate in January. In "Lower Corn Prices Fosters Surge to World Corn Export Trade," Mickey Luth - Director of Commodity Price Analysis – Informa Economics, Inc. examines the impact that reducing the 2013/14 U.S. corn carryover projection has had and will have on U.S. corn markets, as well as the new-crop U.S. corn production prospects that are expected to influence trade levels in 2014/15. Click here for full article
Ukraine Turmoil: Temporary Blip or Lasting Issue for Grain Markets?
The initial wave of global market reaction to the political turmoil in Ukraine appears to have waned, but tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain a point of concern for grain markets. Perceived risks to normal production and commerce, especially in Ukraine, remain elevated. In "Ukraine Turmoil: Temporary Blip or Lasting Issue for Grain Markets?," Don Riffe - Vice President & Director, Crops Economics Research, Kayla Doerr - Commodity Analyst, and Rob Hatchett - Commodity Analyst of Informa Economics, Inc. delve into the Ukraine-Russian state of affairs, suggesting that the currency situation may be the crucial feature to watch, as it has the potential to affect both the cost of production and farmer marketing patterns in the months ahead. Click here for full article
New Farm Programs May Not Prompt Major Acreage Shift
Now that the Agriculture Act of 2014 is signed into law, the process of farmers examining the law to decide their options for the next several crop years is underway. In "New Farm Programs May Not Prompt Major Acreage Shift," Roger Bernard, Policy Analyst and Jim Wiesemeyer, Senior Vice President of Informa Economics, Inc. examine the new set of farm programs and show that farmers' own price and production expectations figure heavily into the choices they will be faced to make this year. Click here for full article
Big Canadian Crops to Give US Wheat Market a Hangover in 14/15?
Canada's near-term wheat export program is likely to be throttled by export capacity constraints than by supply/demand. This is expected to leave Canada with relatively large carryover stocks of spring wheat and durum to compete with US wheat in the 2014/15 US marketing year. In "Big Canadian Crops to Give US Wheat Market a Hangover in 14/15?," Don Riffe, Vice President & Director, Crops Economics Research and Rob Hatchett, Commodity Analyst of Informa Economics, Inc. examine the impact that burdensome Canadian supplies will have on US wheat markets and their expected trade levels in 2014-2015. Click here for full article
U.S. Hog Industry Struggles to Understand PEDV
The last six months has been very challenging for virtually all participants in the lean hog complex. The market is treading into unforeseen territory as the industry tries to understand the magnitude of supply and price impact associated with the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV). In "U.S. Hog Industry Struggles to Understand PEDV," Seanicaa E. Edwards, Analyst - Hog and Pork of Informa Economics, Inc. addresses the major concerns facing active participants in the pork industry, and the impact on Lean Hog futures. Click here for full article
Is Soybean Oil Too "Cheap" in the Oilseed Complex?
Domestic soybean oil stocks on October 1st were at the lowest level in nine years and one-third lower than a year ago. In "Is Soybean Oil Too 'Cheap' in the Oilseed Complex?" Nick Hoyt, Vice President and Chris Eggerman, Senior Commodity Research Analyst of Informa Economics, Inc. discuss the environmental and policy factors impacting this sector's outlook for the near future. Click here for full article
EPA's 2014 Plans on Biofuels: Policy and Market Implications
The initial increase in ethanol usage over the last decade saw an expansion in US corn acreage to meet that demand, but will the ‘blend wall' and gasoline pump infrastructure lead to a US corn surplus? In "EPA's 2014 Plans on Biofuels: Policy and Market Implications," Jim Wiesemeyer, Roger Bernard and Mickey Luth of Informa Economics, Inc. discuss the regulations and infrastructure contributing to a potential bearish corn market in 2013/2014. Click here for full article
Cattle Herd: Can Economics Alone Result in Expanded Cow Numbers?
The US cattle industry has been in a prolonged period of liquidation, and is now at its lowest level since around 1950. In "Cattle Herd: Can Economics Alone Result in Expanded Cow Numbers?," Rick Andersen, Executive Vice President – Livestock at Informa Economics, Inc. examines the market drivers contributing to what could be a very exciting and bullish environment unfolding for the cattle and beef sector. Click here for full article
China Cotton Stockpiling: Not a Long Term Solution
China's stockpiling of cotton has much of the cotton industry scratching their heads at what the future is for the world cotton situation. China now holds about 60% of the world inventory and is expected to increase that level modestly in the 2013/14 crop year. In "China Cotton Stockpiling: Not a Long Term Solution," Kip Butts, Senior Cotton Analyst at Informa Economics, Inc. examines factors that brought the world stock situation to its current state and what will drive the market in the future. Click here for full article
Moving through the Sugar Cycle: Will India Again Turn the Sugar Market Higher?
Informa is forecasting a surplus in the world sugar market for the 2013/14 marketing year for the fourth consecutive year. In "Moving through the Sugar Cycle: Will India Again Turn the Sugar Market Higher?", Ben Warolin, Senior Analyst - Tropical Products at Informa Economics Inc., examines what factors need to be watched to anticipate the direction of price movements in 2013 and beyond. Click here for full article
China: Potential "Game Changer" of the 2013/14 US Corn Market
Informa's current fundamental outlook for corn is decidedly bearish. In "China: Potential ‘Game Changer' of the 2013/14 US Corn Market," Tom Scott, President and COO of Informa Economics, Inc. delves into the 2013/14 corn marketing year, as he observes growing season weather developments, and perhaps more importantly, the pattern and timing of China corn purchases and this market's huge potential as a ‘game changer'.
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Raw Commodity Markets Present Value Buying Opportunities on Long Term Basis
The raw commodity sector of the market place has been beaten down the past several months, most recently led by gold futures prices dropping by over $300 an ounce since the first of the year. In this article, Jim Wyckoff of Informa Economics Inc., explores the compelling clues this beleaguered sector is now providing and the value-buying opportunities in commodity markets including grains, metals, energy, and international foods.
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- How Will the US Rebound from 2012's Major Drought?
- Market Implications of Reduced Crops
Last year's harvested crops, measured by the two major U.S. crops of corn and soybeans, were roughly 6 billion bushels lower than anticipated at planting time, or conservatively 40 percent of expectations. This dramatic reduction of grains and oilseeds resulted in high historical prices for the full value chain. In this article, Bruce A. Scherr, Chairman of the Board and CEO of Informa Economics, Inc. provides a market outlook and implications for investors of agricultural futures in 2013.
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